By AGENCIES

Published: Mar 8, 2010 22:20 Updated: Mar 8, 2010 22:57

BAGHDAD: Early estimates from a range of Iraqi parties on Monday predicted a coalition led by Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki would take the lead in the parliamentary election, though official results were not expected for a few days.

A win by Al-Maliki could signal Iraqis' rejection of the religious parties that have dominated the country since the US-led invasion in 2003. The prime minister has been trying to distance himself from his party's religious roots and portray himself as more of a nationalist.

Sunday's voting was the latest test of Iraq's fragile democracy and will determine whether the country can overcome the deep sectarian divides that have plagued it for the past seven years.

Turnout for Iraq's second election for a full parliamentary term was 62 percent of about 19 million eligible voters, the election commission said. That is lower than the last full parliamentary election in December 2005, in which roughly 76 percent of eligible voters turned out.

Officials attributed the drop to a combination of voter intimidation, more stringent ID requirements at the polls and a drop in voter enthusiasm. A spate of attacks on election day — some directly on voters and polling stations — killed 38 people.

The election commission said at a news conference that initial results for some provinces as well as some districts in Baghdad — an area key to determining any winner — will be announced Tuesday. But full results are not expected for a few more days.

But officials of the various parties were present during regional vote counts after the polls closed Sunday, giving them a sense of where the race is heading.

Abbas Al-Bayati from Al-Maliki's State of Law coalition said early information from the coalition's representatives showed the list did well in Baghdad — where 68 of the Parliament's 325 seats will come from — and in the Shiite south.

Regional officials in other parties who observed local vote counts also acknowledged that Al-Maliki had done the best, although they spoke anonymously because official results had not yet been announced.

An official from a competing Shiite party opposing Al-Maliki said the State of Law coalition appeared to be in the lead. He asked not to be named because of the sensitivity of the issue.

Officials from former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi's Iraqiya alliance said their list had done well in a number of heavily Sunni regions.

Allawi, a fierce critic of Al-Maliki, has said the government needs to do more to bring about reconciliation between the country's warring sects. His coalition included a number of high-profile Sunni candidates as well.

Lawmaker Haider Al-Ebadi, a State of Law candidate and member of Al-Maliki's Dawa party, said initial results suggested the coalition was ahead in 10 provinces. "But the special voting and voters abroad, this has not been concluded yet and could alter the outcome," he said.

There were 272,016 expatriate voters, Iraq's Independent High Electoral Commission said, compared to expectations that more than one million Iraqis might vote overseas. Most Iraqis abroad are believed to be Sunnis and their votes could be crucial for the chances of Allawi’s alliance.

Officials from Al-Maliki's State of Law acknowledged that they did not have enough seats to form an outright majority, meaning they would have to work with other coalitions to form a government, a tough task considering Al-Maliki's fractured relations with opposing political parties.

By all accounts, a small number of seats are expected to separate the first and second place blocs, which could further complicate and prolong the political wrangling required to form a government. ¬